Final tracked odds
As of August 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 91%.
▲ 6 since the previous update. ▲ 20 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
Politics · tracked since July 27, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 5, 2026
91%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 86% | 91% | ▲ 6 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 91% |
| 2026-08-04 | 86% |
| 2026-08-03 | 80% |
| 2026-07-27 | 72% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 91%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 72% on July 27, 2026 to 91% on August 5, 2026 — a change of 19 points.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 72% and 91%. The final reading of 91% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15” for 4 days, since July 27, 2026. As of August 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 91%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 72% to 91%, ranging between 72% and 91% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.