Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, August 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 99.9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 68% on August 1, 2026 to 99.9% on August 4, 2026 — a change of 32 points.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 68% and 99.9%. The final reading of 99.9% sits at the top of that range.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since August 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 4, 2026

99.9%

Final tracked odds

As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 99.9%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 32 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 3	Today	Move
Yes	99.6%	99.9%	—

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-04	99.9%
2026-08-03	99.6%
2026-08-01	68%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 99.9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 68% on August 1, 2026 to 99.9% on August 4, 2026 — a change of 32 points.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 68% and 99.9%. The final reading of 99.9% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3” for 3 days, since August 1, 2026. As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 99.9%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 68% to 99.9%, ranging between 68% and 99.9% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.