Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026 — what are the odds?

As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on October 1, 2026 to 0.4% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 12 points.

Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 10 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.3% and 12%. The current reading of 0.4% sits at the bottom of that range.

Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since October 1, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET

0.4%

Today’s odds

As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.4%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Nov 2	Today	Move
Yes	0.3%	0.4%	—

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-11-04	0.4%
2026-11-02	0.3%
2026-11-01	0.4%
2026-10-31	0.9%
2026-10-30	0.9%
2026-10-29	0.8%
2026-10-28	0.9%
2026-10-27	1.0%
2026-10-26	0.9%
2026-10-01	12%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026 — what are the odds?: As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on October 1, 2026 to 0.4% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 10 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.3% and 12%. The current reading of 0.4% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026” for 10 days, since October 1, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.4%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 0.4%, ranging between 0.3% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.