Israel closes its airspace by September 30 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 73%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Israel closes its airspace by September 30 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on September 1, 2026 to 73% on September 5, 2026 — a change of 63 points.

Israel closes its airspace by September 30 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 73%. The final reading of 73% sits at the top of that range.

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 5, 2026

73%

Final tracked odds

As of September 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 73%.

▲ 63 since the previous update. ▲ 64 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 3	Today	Move
Yes	10%	73%	▲ 63

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-09-05	73%
2026-09-03	10%
2026-09-01	10%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Israel closes its airspace by September 30 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 73%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Israel closes its airspace by September 30 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on September 1, 2026 to 73% on September 5, 2026 — a change of 63 points.
Israel closes its airspace by September 30 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 73%. The final reading of 73% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel closes its airspace by September 30” for 3 days, since September 1, 2026. As of September 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 73%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 10% to 73%, ranging between 10% and 73% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.