Final tracked odds
As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 1.0%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
Everything Else · tracked since October 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 31, 2026
1.0%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.7% | 1.0% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | 1.0% |
| 2026-10-30 | 0.7% |
| 2026-10-29 | 1.2% |
| 2026-10-28 | 2% |
| 2026-10-27 | 1.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | 2% |
| 2026-10-25 | 3% |
| 2026-10-24 | 2% |
| 2026-10-23 | 2% |
| 2026-10-22 | 3% |
| 2026-10-21 | 4% |
| 2026-10-20 | 4% |
| 2026-10-19 | 4% |
| 2026-10-18 | 6% |
| 2026-10-17 | 6% |
| 2026-10-16 | 6% |
| 2026-10-15 | 6% |
| 2026-10-14 | 6% |
| 2026-10-13 | 6% |
| 2026-10-12 | 6% |
| 2026-10-11 | 6% |
| 2026-10-10 | 6% |
| 2026-10-09 | 6% |
| 2026-10-02 | 20% |
| 2026-10-01 | 26% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 1.0%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 25 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 26% on October 1, 2026 to 1.0% on October 31, 2026 — a change of 25 points.
- Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 25 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.7% and 26%. The final reading of 1.0% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31” for 25 days, since October 1, 2026. As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 1.0%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 26% to 1.0%, ranging between 0.7% and 26% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.