Israel closes its airspace by August 15 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, August 15, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Israel closes its airspace by August 15 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on July 26, 2026 to 0.3% on August 15, 2026 — a change of 20 points.

Israel closes its airspace by August 15 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.3% and 20%. The final reading of 0.3% sits at the bottom of that range.

Israel closes its airspace by August 15?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 26, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 15, 2026

0.3%

Final tracked odds

As of August 15, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.3%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 14	Today	Move
Yes	0.9%	0.3%	▼ 1

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-15	0.3%
2026-08-14	0.9%
2026-08-13	1.1%
2026-08-12	2%
2026-08-11	3%
2026-08-10	3%
2026-08-09	3%
2026-08-08	4%
2026-07-26	20%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Israel closes its airspace by August 15 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 15, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Israel closes its airspace by August 15 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on July 26, 2026 to 0.3% on August 15, 2026 — a change of 20 points.
Israel closes its airspace by August 15 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.3% and 20%. The final reading of 0.3% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel closes its airspace by August 15” for 9 days, since July 26, 2026. As of August 15, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 20% to 0.3%, ranging between 0.3% and 20% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 15, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.