Final tracked odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026
16%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 16% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 16% |
| 2026-08-30 | 14% |
| 2026-08-29 | 13% |
| 2026-08-28 | 13% |
| 2026-08-27 | 14% |
| 2026-08-26 | 14% |
| 2026-08-25 | 14% |
| 2026-08-24 | 16% |
| 2026-08-23 | 16% |
| 2026-08-22 | 18% |
| 2026-08-21 | 16% |
| 2026-08-20 | 13% |
| 2026-08-19 | 14% |
| 2026-08-18 | 14% |
| 2026-08-17 | 10% |
| 2026-08-15 | 12% |
| 2026-07-31 | 12% |
| 2026-07-30 | 12% |
| 2026-07-29 | 12% |
| 2026-07-28 | 13% |
| 2026-07-27 | 14% |
| 2026-07-26 | 13% |
| 2026-07-25 | 14% |
| 2026-07-24 | 12% |
| 2026-07-23 | 12% |
| 2026-07-22 | 12% |
| 2026-07-21 | 12% |
| 2026-07-19 | 12% |
| 2026-07-18 | 12% |
| 2026-07-17 | 10% |
| 2026-07-16 | 9% |
| 2026-07-15 | 9% |
| 2026-07-13 | 8% |
| 2026-07-12 | 9% |
| 2026-07-11 | 9% |
| 2026-07-10 | 9% |
| 2026-07-08 | 8% |
| 2026-07-07 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 38 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on July 7, 2026 to 16% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 38 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 18%. The final reading of 16% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027” for 38 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 8% to 16%, ranging between 8% and 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.