Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, August 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 93%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 84% on July 31, 2026 to 93% on August 4, 2026 — a change of 9 points.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 84% and 93%. The final reading of 93% sits at the top of that range.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since July 31, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 4, 2026

93%

Final tracked odds

As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 93%.

▲ 9 since the previous update. ▲ 9 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Jul 31	Today	Move
Yes	84%	93%	▲ 9

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-04	93%
2026-07-31	84%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 93%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 84% on July 31, 2026 to 93% on August 4, 2026 — a change of 9 points.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 84% and 93%. The final reading of 93% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9” for 2 days, since July 31, 2026. As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 93%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 84% to 93%, ranging between 84% and 93% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.