Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 74%.
▲ 19 since the previous update. ▲ 19 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
Politics · tracked since October 9, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
74%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 23 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 74% | ▲ 19 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 74% |
| 2026-10-23 | 55% |
| 2026-10-22 | 59% |
| 2026-10-21 | 68% |
| 2026-10-20 | 70% |
| 2026-10-19 | 70% |
| 2026-10-11 | 74% |
| 2026-10-09 | 72% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 74%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 72% on October 9, 2026 to 74% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 55% and 74%. The current reading of 74% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15” for 8 days, since October 9, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 74%. The chance for a yes has risen from 72% to 74%, ranging between 55% and 74% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.