Final tracked odds
As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
▼ 8 since the previous update. ▼ 8 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 1, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 20 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 2% | ▼ 8 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 2% |
| 2026-10-20 | 10% |
| 2026-10-19 | 8% |
| 2026-10-18 | 8% |
| 2026-10-17 | 10% |
| 2026-10-16 | 8% |
| 2026-10-15 | 9% |
| 2026-10-14 | 9% |
| 2026-10-13 | 9% |
| 2026-10-12 | 8% |
| 2026-10-11 | 9% |
| 2026-10-10 | 6% |
| 2026-10-09 | 6% |
| 2026-10-08 | 6% |
| 2026-10-07 | 6% |
| 2026-10-06 | 8% |
| 2026-10-05 | 8% |
| 2026-10-03 | 8% |
| 2026-10-02 | 8% |
| 2026-10-01 | 8% |
| 2026-08-05 | 22% |
| 2026-08-01 | 14% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Natural Disaster in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Natural Disaster in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 22 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on August 1, 2026 to 2% on November 1, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Natural Disaster in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 22 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 22%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Natural Disaster in 2026” for 22 days, since August 1, 2026. As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 14% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 22% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.