Final tracked odds
As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 65%.
▲ 7 since the previous update. ▲ 7 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
Everything Else · tracked since July 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 1, 2026
65%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 20 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58% | 65% | ▲ 7 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 65% |
| 2026-10-20 | 58% |
| 2026-10-19 | 57% |
| 2026-10-18 | 57% |
| 2026-10-17 | 60% |
| 2026-10-16 | 64% |
| 2026-10-15 | 64% |
| 2026-10-14 | 64% |
| 2026-10-13 | 64% |
| 2026-10-12 | 60% |
| 2026-10-11 | 63% |
| 2026-10-10 | 63% |
| 2026-10-09 | 63% |
| 2026-10-08 | 63% |
| 2026-10-07 | 64% |
| 2026-10-06 | 64% |
| 2026-10-05 | 64% |
| 2026-10-03 | 64% |
| 2026-10-02 | 66% |
| 2026-10-01 | 64% |
| 2026-08-10 | 58% |
| 2026-08-09 | 58% |
| 2026-08-08 | 58% |
| 2026-08-07 | 58% |
| 2026-08-06 | 62% |
| 2026-08-05 | 60% |
| 2026-08-04 | 60% |
| 2026-08-03 | 60% |
| 2026-08-02 | 60% |
| 2026-08-01 | 60% |
| 2026-07-20 | 63% |
| 2026-07-12 | 63% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 65%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 32 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 63% on July 12, 2026 to 65% on November 1, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 32 tracked days the odds ranged between 57% and 66%. The final reading of 65% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T” for 32 days, since July 12, 2026. As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 65%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 63% to 65%, ranging between 57% and 66% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.