Final tracked odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
Everything Else · tracked since July 9, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 4% |
| 2026-08-30 | 4% |
| 2026-08-29 | 4% |
| 2026-08-28 | 4% |
| 2026-08-27 | 4% |
| 2026-08-26 | 4% |
| 2026-08-25 | 4% |
| 2026-08-24 | 6% |
| 2026-08-23 | 6% |
| 2026-08-22 | 6% |
| 2026-08-21 | 6% |
| 2026-08-20 | 7% |
| 2026-08-13 | 5% |
| 2026-08-12 | 5% |
| 2026-08-03 | 5% |
| 2026-08-02 | 4% |
| 2026-08-01 | 4% |
| 2026-07-31 | 5% |
| 2026-07-19 | 10% |
| 2026-07-18 | 10% |
| 2026-07-09 | 10% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 21 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on July 9, 2026 to 4% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 21 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 10%. The final reading of 4% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30” for 21 days, since July 9, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 10% to 4%, ranging between 4% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.