Final tracked odds
As of August 10, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?
Sports · tracked since July 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 10, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 9 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-09 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-08 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-07 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-06 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-05 | 2% |
| 2026-08-04 | 2% |
| 2026-08-03 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-02 | 1.3% |
| 2026-07-09 | 3% |
| 2026-07-08 | 2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 10, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 2% on July 8, 2026 to 0.1% on August 10, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026” for 11 days, since July 8, 2026. As of August 10, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 2% to 0.1%, ranging between 0.1% and 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 10, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.