Final tracked odds
As of August 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 28%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Sports · tracked since July 27, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 1, 2026
28%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 31 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | 28% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | 28% |
| 2026-07-31 | 28% |
| 2026-07-30 | 30% |
| 2026-07-29 | 30% |
| 2026-07-27 | 32% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 28%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on July 27, 2026 to 28% on August 1, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026” for 5 days, since July 27, 2026. As of August 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 28%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 32% to 28%, ranging between 28% and 32% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.