Final tracked odds
As of October 15, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.9%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?
Sports · tracked since August 15, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 15, 2026
0.9%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.9% | 0.9% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | 0.9% |
| 2026-10-14 | 0.9% |
| 2026-10-13 | 0.9% |
| 2026-10-12 | 1.4% |
| 2026-10-11 | 2% |
| 2026-10-10 | 2% |
| 2026-10-09 | 2% |
| 2026-10-08 | 3% |
| 2026-10-07 | 3% |
| 2026-09-24 | 4% |
| 2026-09-23 | 4% |
| 2026-09-22 | 3% |
| 2026-09-21 | 3% |
| 2026-08-28 | 3% |
| 2026-08-17 | 10% |
| 2026-08-16 | 6% |
| 2026-08-15 | 5% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 15, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 5% on August 15, 2026 to 0.9% on October 15, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.9% and 10%. The final reading of 0.9% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026” for 17 days, since August 15, 2026. As of October 15, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.9%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 5% to 0.9%, ranging between 0.9% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 15, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.