Final tracked odds
As of August 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
Sports · tracked since August 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 20, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 19 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | 2% |
| 2026-08-19 | 3% |
| 2026-08-18 | 3% |
| 2026-08-17 | 2% |
| 2026-08-16 | 4% |
| 2026-08-15 | 4% |
| 2026-08-14 | 4% |
| 2026-08-13 | 4% |
| 2026-08-12 | 4% |
| 2026-08-11 | 6% |
| 2026-08-10 | 6% |
| 2026-08-09 | 8% |
| 2026-08-08 | 8% |
| 2026-08-07 | 11% |
| 2026-08-06 | 12% |
| 2026-08-05 | 12% |
| 2026-08-04 | 14% |
| 2026-08-03 | 13% |
| 2026-08-02 | 12% |
| 2026-08-01 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 20, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 20 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on August 1, 2026 to 2% on August 20, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 20 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 14%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026” for 20 days, since August 1, 2026. As of August 20, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 8% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 20, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.