Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 93%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since October 1, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
93%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 93% | 93% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 93% |
| 2026-11-02 | 93% |
| 2026-11-01 | 94% |
| 2026-10-31 | 94% |
| 2026-10-30 | 94% |
| 2026-10-29 | 94% |
| 2026-10-28 | 94% |
| 2026-10-27 | 94% |
| 2026-10-26 | 93% |
| 2026-10-25 | 93% |
| 2026-10-24 | 96% |
| 2026-10-23 | 93% |
| 2026-10-22 | 93% |
| 2026-10-21 | 94% |
| 2026-10-20 | 93% |
| 2026-10-19 | 93% |
| 2026-10-18 | 93% |
| 2026-10-17 | 93% |
| 2026-10-16 | 93% |
| 2026-10-15 | 93% |
| 2026-10-14 | 94% |
| 2026-10-13 | 96% |
| 2026-10-12 | 96% |
| 2026-10-11 | 96% |
| 2026-10-10 | 96% |
| 2026-10-09 | 96% |
| 2026-10-08 | 96% |
| 2026-10-07 | 96% |
| 2026-10-06 | 96% |
| 2026-10-05 | 95% |
| 2026-10-04 | 94% |
| 2026-10-03 | 95% |
| 2026-10-02 | 93% |
| 2026-10-01 | 92% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 93%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 34 tracked days the odds held near 92%, ending at 93% on November 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch” for 34 days, since October 1, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 93%. The chance for a yes has risen from 92% to 93%, ranging between 92% and 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.