Final tracked odds
As of October 20, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Dacian Cioloș leads at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 20, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Dacian CioloșMarcel CiolacuDelia VelculescuNicolae CiucăGeorge Simion
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 19 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dacian Cioloș | — | 0.1% | — |
| Marcel Ciolacu | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Delia Velculescu | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Nicolae Ciucă | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| George Simion | — | 0.1% | — |
| Lucian Isar | — | 0.1% | — |
| Siegfried Mureșan | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| Mugur Isărescu | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Dacian Cioloș | Marcel Ciolacu | Delia Velculescu | Nicolae Ciucă | George Simion | Lucian Isar | Siegfried Mureșan | Mugur Isărescu |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-19 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-16 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-15 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-13 | — | — | 0.1% | — | — | — | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-12 | — | — | 0.1% | — | — | — | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-11 | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-10 | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-10-09 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-10-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-10-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-10-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-10-05 | — | — | 1.1% | — | — | — | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-10-04 | — | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 1.1% | — | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-03 | — | 0.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | — | — | 1.1% | — | — | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-10-01 | — | — | 1.1% | — | — | 0.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-09-30 | — | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 2% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-29 | — | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 2% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-28 | — | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 3% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | 12% | — |
| 2026-09-26 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | 9% | — |
| 2026-09-25 | — | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.8% | — | 9% | — |
| 2026-09-24 | — | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.9% | — | 14% | — |
| 2026-09-23 | — | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 2% | — | 16% | — |
| 2026-09-22 | — | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 2% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-21 | — | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 2% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-18 | 0.1% | — | — | — | 2% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-17 | 0.1% | — | — | — | 1.4% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-16 | 0.1% | — | — | — | 3% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-15 | 0.1% | — | — | — | 3% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-14 | 0.1% | — | — | — | 0.8% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-12 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-11 | 0.1% | — | — | — | 0.8% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | 0.1% | — | — | — | 0.7% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-07 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-06 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-03 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-02 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-26 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | 0.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | 0.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-11 | 0.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-10 | 0.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-09 | 0.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-08 | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | — | 0.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-05 | — | 0.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | 0.4% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.7% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | — | 0.1% | 2% | 0.1% | 2% | 0.4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | — | 0.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 2% | 0.4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 0.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 0.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 0.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-21 | 0.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-20 | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 20, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 40 tracked days the odds held near 0.1%, ending at 0.1% on October 20, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania” for 40 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 20, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Dacian Cioloș leads at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for the leading outcome has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 20, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.