Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Fabian Ruiz leads at 1.4%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
1.4%
How the odds have moved
Fabian RuizPedriDeclan RiceVinícius JúniorMohamed Salah
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Ruiz | 0.9% | 1.4% | ▲ 1 |
| Pedri | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Declan Rice | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Mohamed Salah | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Pau Cubarsi | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Fabian Ruiz | Pedri | Declan Rice | Vinícius Júnior | Mohamed Salah | Pau Cubarsi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-05 | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-04 | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-03 | 2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-02 | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-31 | 0.9% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-30 | 1.1% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-29 | 0.8% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-28 | 0.8% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-27 | 0.8% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-26 | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-25 | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-24 | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-23 | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-22 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-21 | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-20 | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-19 | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-17 | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-16 | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-15 | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-14 | 0.9% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-13 | 1.1% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-12 | — | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-11 | — | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-10 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-09 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-08 | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-07 | — | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-06 | 1.1% | 0.1% | — | — | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-05 | — | 0.1% | — | — | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-04 | — | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | — | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | — | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | — | 0.1% | — | — | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | — | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | — | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-27 | — | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | — | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | — | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | — | — | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — | — | — | 0.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | — | — | 0.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | — | 0.2% | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — | — | 0.4% | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | 0.4% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | 0.5% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | 0.8% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | 1.2% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | 1.3% | — | — | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 1.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 27 tracked days the odds held near 1.1%, ending at 1.4% on September 6, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or” for 27 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Fabian Ruiz leads at 1.4%. The chance for the leading outcome has held near 1.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.