Final tracked odds
As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds make Abdul El-Sayed the most likely outcome at 98%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 34 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 4, 2026
98%
How the odds have moved
Abdul El-SayedMallory McMorrowDana Nessel
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed | — | 98% | — |
| Mallory McMorrow | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Dana Nessel | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Abdul El-Sayed | Mallory McMorrow | Dana Nessel |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 98% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-03 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-02 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-01 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-31 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-19 | 64% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-18 | 66% | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 68% | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 68% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 66% | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 78% | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 80% | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 4, 2026, Abdul El-Sayed led at 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 80% on July 12, 2026 to 98% on August 4, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
- Who will win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 64% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary” for 8 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 4, 2026, Abdul El-Sayed leads the field at 98%. The final tracked chance for Abdul El-Sayed has risen from 80% to 98%, ranging between 64% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.