The Morning Line

Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET

5%

Today’s odds

As of November 4, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; New England Revolution leads at 5%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

New England RevolutionSeattle Sounders FC
0%25%50%75%100%Aug 7Aug 29Sep 20Oct 13Nov 4New England Revolution — Sep 1: 2%New England Revolution — Nov 4: 5%5%Seattle Sounders FC — Aug 7: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Nov 4: 0.7%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeNov 3TodayMove
New England Revolution—5%—
Seattle Sounders FC0.7%0.7%—
Full history table
DateNew England RevolutionSeattle Sounders FC
2026-11-045%0.7%
2026-11-03—0.7%
2026-11-02—0.8%
2026-11-01—1.3%
2026-10-31—1.2%
2026-10-305%1.2%
2026-10-295%1.2%
2026-10-284%2%
2026-10-274%2%
2026-10-264%2%
2026-10-25——
2026-10-24—2%
2026-10-23—2%
2026-10-22—2%
2026-10-213%2%
2026-10-204%2%
2026-10-194%2%
2026-10-184%2%
2026-10-173%2%
2026-10-16—2%
2026-10-15—2%
2026-10-14—2%
2026-10-13—2%
2026-10-12—2%
2026-10-11—2%
2026-10-10—2%
2026-10-09—2%
2026-10-08—2%
2026-10-07—2%
2026-10-06—2%
2026-10-05—1.5%
2026-10-043%1.4%
2026-10-03—2%
2026-10-02—2%
2026-10-01—2%
2026-09-303%2%
2026-09-293%2%
2026-09-283%3%
2026-09-27—2%
2026-09-26—0.1%
2026-09-253%0.6%
2026-09-243%0.6%
2026-09-233%0.6%
2026-09-223%0.7%
2026-09-213%0.1%
2026-09-20—0.6%
2026-09-19—0.9%
2026-09-183%0.9%
2026-09-173%0.9%
2026-09-163%0.9%
2026-09-153%0.9%
2026-09-143%1.2%
2026-09-13—1.4%
2026-09-12—1.3%
2026-09-112%1.3%
2026-09-102%1.3%
2026-09-092%1.3%
2026-09-082%1.3%
2026-09-072%2%
2026-09-06—2%
2026-09-05—2%
2026-09-04—2%
2026-09-03—3%
2026-09-022%2%
2026-09-012%3%
2026-08-31——
2026-08-30——
2026-08-29——
2026-08-28——
2026-08-27—0.5%
2026-08-26—0.8%
2026-08-25—0.8%
2026-08-24—0.8%
2026-08-23—1.1%
2026-08-22—4%
2026-08-21—4%
2026-08-20—4%
2026-08-19—4%
2026-08-18—4%
2026-08-17—4%
2026-08-16—4%
2026-08-15—4%
2026-08-14—4%
2026-08-13—4%
2026-08-12—4%
2026-08-11—4%
2026-08-10—4%
2026-08-09—4%
2026-08-08—4%
2026-08-07—4%
2026-08-061.5%4%
2026-08-051.5%4%
2026-08-041.5%4%
2026-08-03—4%
2026-08-021.5%4%
2026-08-01—4%
2026-07-31—4%
2026-07-30—4%
2026-07-29—4%
2026-07-28—4%
2026-07-27—4%
2026-07-26—4%
2026-07-25—4%
2026-07-24—4%
2026-07-23—4%
2026-07-22—4%
2026-07-21—4%
2026-07-20—4%
2026-07-19——
2026-07-18——
2026-07-17——
2026-07-16—4%
2026-07-15—4%
2026-07-14——
2026-07-13—4%
2026-07-12—4%
2026-07-11——
2026-07-10—4%
2026-07-09—4%
2026-07-08—4%
2026-07-07—4%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup — what are the odds?
As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup — have the odds gone up or down?
Up. Over the 36 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 1.5% on August 2, 2026 to 5% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 4 points.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup” for 36 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — New England Revolution leads at 5%. The chance for the leading outcome has risen from 1.5% to 5%, ranging between 1.5% and 5% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

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