Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds make Nashville SC the most likely outcome at 18%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
18%
How the odds have moved
Nashville SCSeattle Sounders FCColorado RapidsSporting Kansas City
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 16% | 18% | ▲ 2 |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 2% | 2% | ▲ 1 |
| Colorado Rapids | 1.1% | 1.1% | — |
| Sporting Kansas City | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Nashville SC | Seattle Sounders FC | Colorado Rapids | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 18% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-05 | 16% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-04 | 16% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-03 | 15% | 3% | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-02 | 16% | 2% | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | 16% | 3% | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-31 | 16% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | 16% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | 16% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-28 | 16% | — | 0.7% | — |
| 2026-08-27 | 17% | 0.5% | 1.1% | — |
| 2026-08-26 | 17% | 0.8% | 1.1% | — |
| 2026-08-25 | 17% | 0.8% | 0.9% | — |
| 2026-08-24 | 19% | 0.8% | 1.1% | — |
| 2026-08-23 | 18% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 17% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-21 | 19% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 13% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 13% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 | 13% | 4% | — | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-17 | 12% | 4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-16 | 12% | 4% | — | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-15 | 10% | 4% | — | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-14 | 9% | 4% | — | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-13 | 9% | 4% | — | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-12 | 9% | 4% | — | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-11 | — | 4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-10 | — | 4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-09 | — | 4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-08 | — | 4% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-07 | — | 4% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-06 | — | 4% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-05 | — | 4% | 0.3% | — |
| 2026-08-04 | — | 4% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-03 | — | 4% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-08-02 | — | 4% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-01 | — | 4% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 9% | 4% | — | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-30 | 9% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | 9% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | 9% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 9% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-26 | 9% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | 9% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | 9% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 9% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 8% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-21 | 8% | 4% | 0.3% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | 4% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-19 | 8% | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | 8% | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 8% | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 8% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 8% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 8% | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 8% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 8% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 8% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 8% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 8% | 4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 8% | 4% | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, Nashville SC leads at 18%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 50 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on July 7, 2026 to 18% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
- Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 50 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 19%. The current reading of 18% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup” for 50 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, Nashville SC leads the field at 18%. The chance for Nashville SC has risen from 8% to 18%, ranging between 8% and 19% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.