Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Marion Maréchal leads at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Marion MaréchalKarim Bouamrane
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Maréchal | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Karim Bouamrane | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Marion Maréchal | Karim Bouamrane |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-05 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-04 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-26 | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | — | — |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | — | — |
| 2026-08-21 | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | — | — |
| 2026-08-05 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-04 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-03 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-02 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | — | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | — | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2027 French presidential election — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2027 French presidential election — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 6 tracked days the odds held near 0.1%, ending at 0.1% on September 6, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2027 French presidential election” for 6 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Marion Maréchal leads at 0.1%. The chance for the leading outcome has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.