The Morning Line

Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?

Politics · tracked since July 13, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 10, 2026

42%

Final tracked odds

As of August 10, 2026, market-consensus odds make Darline Graham the most likely outcome at 42%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 20 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 40% on August 10, 2026. Darline Graham won.

How the odds have moved

Darline GrahamRussell FryRalph NormanMark Sanford
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 13Jul 19Jul 26Aug 2Aug 10Darline Graham — Jul 22: 72%Darline Graham — Jul 23: 66%Darline Graham — Jul 24: 70%Darline Graham — Jul 25: 70%Darline Graham — Jul 26: 72%Darline Graham — Jul 27: 72%Darline Graham — Jul 28: 74%Darline Graham — Jul 29: 72%Darline Graham — Jul 30: 58%Darline Graham — Jul 31: 54%Darline Graham — Aug 1: 66%Darline Graham — Aug 2: 64%Darline Graham — Aug 3: 62%Darline Graham — Aug 4: 64%Darline Graham — Aug 7: 46%Darline Graham — Aug 10: 42%42%Russell Fry — Jul 13: 62%Russell Fry — Jul 14: 64%Russell Fry — Jul 15: 58%Russell Fry — Jul 16: 39%Russell Fry — Jul 17: 18%Russell Fry — Jul 18: 22%Russell Fry — Jul 19: 14%Russell Fry — Jul 20: 14%Russell Fry — Jul 21: 10%Russell Fry — Jul 22: 8%Russell Fry — Jul 23: 6%Russell Fry — Jul 24: 8%Russell Fry — Jul 25: 8%Russell Fry — Jul 26: 8%Russell Fry — Jul 27: 7%Russell Fry — Jul 28: 6%Russell Fry — Jul 29: 8%Russell Fry — Jul 30: 4%Russell Fry — Jul 31: 4%Russell Fry — Aug 1: 14%Russell Fry — Aug 2: 18%Russell Fry — Aug 3: 21%Russell Fry — Aug 4: 15%Russell Fry — Aug 7: 26%Russell Fry — Aug 10: 30%Ralph Norman — Jul 13: 14%Ralph Norman — Jul 14: 16%Ralph Norman — Jul 15: 22%Ralph Norman — Jul 16: 26%Ralph Norman — Jul 17: 6%Ralph Norman — Jul 18: 24%Ralph Norman — Jul 19: 22%Ralph Norman — Jul 20: 12%Ralph Norman — Jul 21: 8%Ralph Norman — Jul 22: 16%Ralph Norman — Jul 23: 22%Ralph Norman — Jul 24: 18%Ralph Norman — Jul 25: 18%Ralph Norman — Jul 26: 18%Ralph Norman — Jul 27: 18%Ralph Norman — Jul 28: 18%Ralph Norman — Jul 29: 20%Ralph Norman — Jul 30: 36%Ralph Norman — Jul 31: 42%Ralph Norman — Aug 1: 20%Ralph Norman — Aug 2: 18%Ralph Norman — Aug 3: 18%Ralph Norman — Aug 4: 18%Ralph Norman — Aug 7: 26%Ralph Norman — Aug 10: 26%Mark Sanford — Jul 23: 3%Mark Sanford — Jul 24: 2%Mark Sanford — Jul 25: 2%Mark Sanford — Jul 26: 2%Mark Sanford — Jul 27: 2%Mark Sanford — Jul 28: 2%Mark Sanford — Jul 29: 2%Mark Sanford — Jul 30: 2%Mark Sanford — Aug 1: 2%Mark Sanford — Aug 2: 2%Mark Sanford — Aug 4: 2%Mark Sanford — Aug 6: 2%Mark Sanford — Aug 7: 2%Mark Sanford — Aug 9: 4%Mark Sanford — Aug 10: 2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeAug 9TodayMove
Darline Graham—42%—
Russell Fry—30%—
Ralph Norman—26%—
Mark Sanford4%2%▼ 1
Full history table
DateDarline GrahamRussell FryRalph NormanMark Sanford
2026-08-1042%30%26%2%
2026-08-09———4%
2026-08-0746%26%26%2%
2026-08-06———2%
2026-08-0464%15%18%2%
2026-08-0362%21%18%—
2026-08-0264%18%18%2%
2026-08-0166%14%20%2%
2026-07-3154%4%42%—
2026-07-3058%4%36%2%
2026-07-2972%8%20%2%
2026-07-2874%6%18%2%
2026-07-2772%7%18%2%
2026-07-2672%8%18%2%
2026-07-2570%8%18%2%
2026-07-2470%8%18%2%
2026-07-2366%6%22%3%
2026-07-2272%8%16%—
2026-07-21—10%8%—
2026-07-20—14%12%—
2026-07-19—14%22%—
2026-07-18—22%24%—
2026-07-17—18%6%—
2026-07-16—39%26%—
2026-07-15—58%22%—
2026-07-14—64%16%—
2026-07-13—62%14%—

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, August 10, 2026, Darline Graham led at 42%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary — did the odds go up or down?
Down. Over the 16 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 72% on July 22, 2026 to 42% on August 10, 2026 — a change of 30 points.
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 16 tracked days the odds ranged between 42% and 74%. The final reading of 42% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary” for 16 days, since July 13, 2026. As of August 10, 2026, Darline Graham leads the field at 42%. The final tracked chance for Darline Graham has fallen from 72% to 42%, ranging between 42% and 74% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 10, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.