Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds make Javier Milei the most likely outcome at 46%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 22, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
46%
How the odds have moved
Javier MileiSergio MassaMauricio Macri
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 45% | 46% | ▲ 1 |
| Sergio Massa | — | 14% | — |
| Mauricio Macri | — | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Javier Milei | Sergio Massa | Mauricio Macri |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 46% | 14% | 0.1% |
| 2026-11-02 | 45% | — | — |
| 2026-10-31 | 44% | — | — |
| 2026-10-30 | 44% | — | — |
| 2026-10-29 | 44% | — | — |
| 2026-10-28 | 46% | — | — |
| 2026-10-27 | 46% | — | — |
| 2026-10-26 | 46% | — | — |
| 2026-10-25 | 46% | — | — |
| 2026-10-24 | 47% | — | — |
| 2026-10-23 | 46% | — | — |
| 2026-10-22 | 48% | — | — |
| 2026-10-21 | 46% | — | — |
| 2026-10-20 | 46% | — | — |
| 2026-10-19 | 48% | — | — |
| 2026-10-18 | 48% | — | — |
| 2026-10-17 | 48% | — | — |
| 2026-10-16 | 50% | — | — |
| 2026-10-07 | — | — | — |
| 2026-10-04 | — | 7% | — |
| 2026-10-03 | — | 6% | — |
| 2026-09-30 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-29 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-28 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-26 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-25 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-24 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-23 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-22 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-21 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-19 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-18 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-17 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-16 | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 50% | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | 52% | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | 50% | — | — |
| 2026-08-28 | 50% | — | — |
| 2026-08-27 | 52% | — | — |
| 2026-08-26 | 52% | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | 52% | — | — |
| 2026-08-24 | 52% | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | 54% | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 50% | — | — |
| 2026-08-21 | 50% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 50% | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 52% | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 | 53% | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | 52% | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | 52% | — | — |
| 2026-08-15 | 52% | — | — |
| 2026-08-14 | 50% | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | 54% | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | 55% | — | — |
| 2026-08-11 | 56% | — | — |
| 2026-08-10 | 56% | — | — |
| 2026-08-09 | 56% | — | — |
| 2026-08-08 | 54% | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | 54% | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | 52% | — | — |
| 2026-08-05 | 50% | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | 52% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 52% | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | 54% | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | 54% | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | — | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2027 Argentina presidential election — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, Javier Milei leads at 46%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2027 Argentina presidential election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 49 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 54% on August 1, 2026 to 46% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
- Who will win the 2027 Argentina presidential election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 49 tracked days the odds ranged between 44% and 56%. The current reading of 46% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2027 Argentina presidential election” for 49 days, since July 22, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, Javier Milei leads the field at 46%. The chance for Javier Milei has fallen from 54% to 46%, ranging between 44% and 56% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.