Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds make JD Vance the most likely outcome at 17%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
17%
How the odds have moved
JD VanceAlexandria Ocasio-CortezMarco RubioGavin NewsomTucker Carlson
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 18% | 17% | ▼ 1 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 12% | 13% | ▲ 1 |
| Marco Rubio | — | 9% | — |
| Gavin Newsom | 12% | 8% | ▼ 3 |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.2% | 1.4% | — |
| Andy Beshear | 2% | 1.2% | ▼ 1 |
| Wes Moore | — | 0.8% | — |
| Ted Cruz | — | 0.5% | — |
Full history table
| Date | JD Vance | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Marco Rubio | Gavin Newsom | Tucker Carlson | Andy Beshear | Wes Moore | Ted Cruz |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 17% | 13% | 9% | 8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 2026-11-03 | 18% | 12% | — | 12% | 1.2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-11-02 | 18% | 12% | — | 12% | 1.4% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-11-01 | 18% | 13% | — | 12% | 1.2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-31 | 18% | 12% | — | 12% | 1.2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-30 | 19% | 12% | — | 12% | 1.2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-29 | 16% | 13% | — | 11% | 1.2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-28 | 18% | 13% | — | 11% | 1.2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-27 | 18% | 13% | — | 12% | 1.4% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-26 | 20% | 13% | — | 12% | 1.4% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-25 | 21% | 13% | — | 11% | 1.5% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-24 | 21% | 13% | — | 10% | 1.5% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-23 | 20% | 13% | — | 9% | 2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-22 | 20% | 13% | — | 10% | 1.5% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-21 | 20% | 13% | 9% | 9% | 1.5% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-20 | 20% | 13% | 9% | 9% | 2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-19 | 20% | 13% | 9% | 9% | 2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-18 | 20% | 13% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-17 | 21% | 13% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-16 | 21% | 13% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-15 | 21% | 13% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 0.9% | — |
| 2026-10-14 | 22% | 13% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 0.9% | — |
| 2026-10-13 | 22% | 13% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 0.9% | — |
| 2026-10-12 | 22% | 13% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 0.9% | — |
| 2026-10-11 | 18% | 13% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 0.9% | — |
| 2026-10-10 | 19% | 13% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 0.9% | — |
| 2026-10-09 | 20% | 13% | 7% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 0.9% | — |
| 2026-10-08 | 20% | 13% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 0.9% | — |
| 2026-10-07 | 20% | 13% | 5% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 0.9% | — |
| 2026-10-06 | 20% | 14% | 9% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 0.9% | — |
| 2026-10-05 | 20% | — | — | 8% | 2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-04 | 20% | — | — | 7% | 2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-03 | 21% | — | — | 8% | 2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-10-02 | 21% | — | — | 8% | 2% | 1.5% | — | — |
| 2026-10-01 | 21% | 13% | — | 8% | 2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 21% | 13% | — | 8% | 2% | 1.5% | — | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-29 | 21% | 13% | — | 8% | 2% | 1.4% | — | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-28 | 21% | 13% | — | 8% | 2% | 1.3% | — | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-27 | 21% | 13% | — | 8% | 2% | 1.2% | — | — |
| 2026-09-26 | 21% | 13% | — | 8% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-25 | 21% | 13% | — | 8% | 2% | 1.1% | — | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-24 | 21% | 13% | — | 9% | 2% | 1.1% | — | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-23 | 21% | 13% | — | 7% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-22 | 21% | 13% | — | 7% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-21 | 21% | 13% | — | 8% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-20 | 21% | 13% | — | 8% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-19 | 21% | 13% | — | 8% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-18 | 21% | 13% | — | 8% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-17 | 22% | 13% | — | 8% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-16 | 23% | — | — | 8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-15 | 23% | — | — | 8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-14 | 24% | — | — | 8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-13 | 24% | — | — | 7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-12 | 24% | — | — | 8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-11 | 24% | — | — | 8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | 24% | — | — | 7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | 24% | — | — | 7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 25% | — | — | 7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-07 | 25% | — | — | 7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-06 | 25% | — | — | 8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | 25% | — | — | 7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 24% | 13% | — | 9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-03 | 24% | 13% | — | 9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-02 | 25% | 11% | — | 9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | 25% | 11% | — | 9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 25% | 11% | — | 8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | 25% | 11% | — | 7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | 25% | 11% | — | 8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-28 | 24% | 13% | — | 9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-27 | 24% | 14% | — | 9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-26 | 23% | 14% | — | 9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | 23% | 14% | — | 9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-24 | 23% | 14% | — | 9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | 23% | 14% | — | 8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 22% | 13% | — | 8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | — | — |
| 2026-08-21 | 20% | 13% | — | 8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 20% | 13% | — | 9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 21% | 13% | — | 9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 | 21% | 12% | — | 8% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | 23% | 13% | — | 8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | 23% | 13% | — | 9% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-15 | 23% | 13% | — | 9% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-14 | 23% | 13% | — | 9% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | 23% | 13% | — | 9% | 2% | 1.2% | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | 22% | 11% | — | 10% | 2% | 1.4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-11 | 22% | 9% | — | 10% | 2% | 1.4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-10 | 22% | 9% | — | 10% | 2% | 1.4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-09 | 21% | 10% | — | 10% | 2% | 1.4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-08 | 21% | 10% | — | 10% | 2% | 1.4% | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | 21% | 11% | — | 11% | 2% | 2% | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | 21% | 9% | — | 12% | 2% | 1.2% | — | — |
| 2026-08-05 | 21% | 9% | — | 12% | 1.4% | 1.2% | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | 21% | 9% | — | 12% | 1.1% | 1.2% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 21% | 9% | — | 12% | 1.4% | 1.2% | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | 21% | 10% | — | 12% | 1.4% | 1.2% | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | 20% | 9% | — | 12% | 1.4% | 1.2% | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 20% | 9% | — | 11% | 1.0% | 1.2% | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | 20% | 9% | — | 12% | 1.1% | 1.2% | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 1.2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-26 | 20% | — | — | 13% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | 20% | — | — | 13% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | 20% | — | — | 13% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 20% | — | — | 13% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 20% | — | — | 13% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-21 | 20% | — | — | 13% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-20 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-19 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 1.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 20% | — | — | 11% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 20% | — | — | 12% | 2% | 0.9% | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 20% | — | — | 12% | — | 0.9% | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, JD Vance leads at 17%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 121 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on July 7, 2026 to 17% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
- Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 121 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 25%. The current reading of 17% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election” for 121 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, JD Vance leads the field at 17%. The chance for JD Vance has fallen from 20% to 17%, ranging between 16% and 25% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.