Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds make the Democrats the most likely outcome at 60%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
60%
How the odds have moved
the Democratsthe RepublicansJD VanceGavin NewsomTucker Carlson
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Democrats | 60% | 60% | — |
| the Republicans | 40% | 40% | ▼ 1 |
| JD Vance | 25% | 25% | — |
| Gavin Newsom | 7% | 8% | ▲ 1 |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.1% | 1.2% | — |
| Andy Beshear | 1.1% | 1.1% | — |
| Greg Abbott | 0.9% | 0.9% | — |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 0.7% | 0.7% | — |
Full history table
| Date | the Democrats | the Republicans | JD Vance | Gavin Newsom | Tucker Carlson | Andy Beshear | Greg Abbott | Donald Trump Jr. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 60% | 40% | 25% | 8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-05 | 60% | 40% | 25% | 7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-04 | 60% | 40% | 24% | 9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-03 | 60% | — | 24% | 9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-02 | 60% | 40% | 25% | 9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-01 | 60% | — | 25% | 9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 2026-08-31 | 58% | 40% | 25% | 8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 2026-08-30 | 58% | 40% | 25% | 7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 2026-08-29 | 58% | 40% | 25% | 8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 2026-08-28 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 2026-08-27 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 2026-08-26 | 57% | 40% | 23% | 9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 2026-08-25 | 57% | 40% | 23% | 9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 2026-08-24 | 57% | 40% | 23% | 9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 2026-08-23 | 57% | 40% | 23% | 8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 2026-08-22 | 58% | 40% | 22% | 8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 2026-08-21 | 59% | 42% | 20% | 8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 2026-08-20 | 58% | 42% | 20% | 9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-19 | 58% | — | 21% | 9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-18 | 58% | — | 21% | 8% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-17 | 58% | — | 23% | 8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-16 | 58% | — | 23% | 9% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-15 | 58% | — | 23% | 9% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-14 | 58% | — | 23% | 9% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-13 | 58% | — | 23% | 9% | 2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-12 | 58% | 40% | 22% | 10% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-11 | 58% | — | 22% | 10% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-10 | 60% | — | 22% | 10% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-09 | 60% | — | 21% | 10% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-08 | 60% | — | 21% | 10% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-07 | 60% | — | 21% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-06 | 60% | — | 21% | 12% | 2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-05 | 60% | — | 21% | 12% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-04 | 60% | — | 21% | 12% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-03 | 60% | — | 21% | 12% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-02 | 60% | — | 21% | 12% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-01 | 60% | — | 20% | 12% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-31 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-30 | 58% | 40% | 20% | 12% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-29 | 58% | 40% | 20% | 12% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-28 | 58% | 40% | 20% | 12% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-27 | 58% | 40% | 20% | 12% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-26 | 57% | 40% | 20% | 13% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-25 | 57% | 40% | 20% | 13% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-24 | 57% | 40% | 20% | 13% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-23 | 58% | 40% | 20% | 13% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-22 | 58% | 40% | 20% | 13% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-21 | 58% | 40% | 20% | 13% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-20 | 58% | — | 20% | 12% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-19 | — | 40% | 20% | 12% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-18 | — | 40% | 20% | 12% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-17 | — | 40% | 20% | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-16 | — | 40% | 20% | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-15 | — | 40% | 20% | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-14 | — | 40% | 20% | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-13 | 58% | 40% | 20% | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-12 | 58% | 40% | 20% | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-11 | — | 40% | 20% | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-10 | — | 40% | 20% | 11% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-09 | — | 40% | 20% | 12% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 58% | 40% | 20% | 12% | 2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 58% | 40% | 20% | 12% | — | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the Democrats leads at 60%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 53 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 58% on July 7, 2026 to 60% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election” for 53 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, the Democrats leads the field at 60%. The chance for the Democrats has risen from 58% to 60%, ranging between 57% and 60% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.