Final tracked odds
As of November 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 28%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since August 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 2, 2026
28%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan | 26% | 28% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Dan Sullivan |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | 28% |
| 2026-11-01 | 26% |
| 2026-10-31 | 29% |
| 2026-10-28 | — |
| 2026-10-27 | — |
| 2026-10-26 | — |
| 2026-10-25 | — |
| 2026-10-24 | — |
| 2026-10-23 | — |
| 2026-10-22 | — |
| 2026-10-21 | — |
| 2026-10-20 | — |
| 2026-10-19 | — |
| 2026-10-18 | — |
| 2026-10-17 | — |
| 2026-10-16 | — |
| 2026-10-15 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | — |
| 2026-10-13 | — |
| 2026-10-12 | — |
| 2026-10-11 | — |
| 2026-10-09 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 28% |
| 2026-09-29 | 28% |
| 2026-09-28 | 30% |
| 2026-09-27 | 28% |
| 2026-09-26 | 28% |
| 2026-09-25 | 28% |
| 2026-09-24 | 26% |
| 2026-09-20 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 37% |
| 2026-09-07 | 36% |
| 2026-09-06 | 36% |
| 2026-09-05 | 36% |
| 2026-09-04 | 36% |
| 2026-09-03 | 36% |
| 2026-08-28 | 34% |
| 2026-08-06 | 49% |
| 2026-08-05 | 50% |
| 2026-08-04 | 44% |
| 2026-08-03 | 44% |
| 2026-08-02 | 44% |
| 2026-08-01 | 40% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 28%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 40% on August 1, 2026 to 28% on November 2, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 26% and 50%. The final reading of 28% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026” for 23 days, since August 1, 2026. As of November 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 28%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 40% to 28%, ranging between 26% and 50% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 2, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.