Final tracked odds
As of July 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 97%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Clacton by-election?
Politics · tracked since July 10, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 30, 2026
97%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Farage | 97% | 97% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Nigel Farage |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 97% |
| 2026-07-29 | 97% |
| 2026-07-28 | 96% |
| 2026-07-27 | 96% |
| 2026-07-26 | 96% |
| 2026-07-25 | 96% |
| 2026-07-24 | 96% |
| 2026-07-23 | 96% |
| 2026-07-22 | 95% |
| 2026-07-21 | 95% |
| 2026-07-20 | 95% |
| 2026-07-19 | 96% |
| 2026-07-18 | 96% |
| 2026-07-17 | 95% |
| 2026-07-11 | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Clacton by-election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 97%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Clacton by-election — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 14 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 95% on July 17, 2026 to 97% on July 30, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Clacton by-election” for 14 days, since July 10, 2026. As of July 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 97%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 95% to 97%, ranging between 95% and 97% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.