Final tracked odds
As of October 25, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 29%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since August 4, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 25, 2026
29%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 24 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Republicans | 30% | 29% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | the Republicans |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 29% |
| 2026-10-24 | 30% |
| 2026-10-23 | 28% |
| 2026-10-22 | 30% |
| 2026-10-21 | 30% |
| 2026-10-20 | 30% |
| 2026-10-19 | 30% |
| 2026-10-18 | 31% |
| 2026-10-15 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | — |
| 2026-10-13 | — |
| 2026-10-12 | — |
| 2026-10-11 | — |
| 2026-10-10 | — |
| 2026-10-09 | — |
| 2026-10-08 | — |
| 2026-10-07 | — |
| 2026-10-06 | — |
| 2026-09-13 | 36% |
| 2026-09-12 | 37% |
| 2026-09-11 | 37% |
| 2026-09-10 | 36% |
| 2026-09-09 | 34% |
| 2026-09-08 | 34% |
| 2026-09-07 | 34% |
| 2026-09-06 | 34% |
| 2026-09-05 | 34% |
| 2026-09-04 | 35% |
| 2026-09-03 | 36% |
| 2026-09-02 | 36% |
| 2026-09-01 | 36% |
| 2026-08-31 | — |
| 2026-08-30 | — |
| 2026-08-29 | — |
| 2026-08-28 | — |
| 2026-08-27 | — |
| 2026-08-26 | — |
| 2026-08-25 | — |
| 2026-08-24 | — |
| 2026-08-23 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | — |
| 2026-08-21 | — |
| 2026-08-09 | 42% |
| 2026-08-08 | 42% |
| 2026-08-07 | 40% |
| 2026-08-06 | 40% |
| 2026-08-05 | — |
| 2026-08-04 | 36% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 25, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 29%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 26 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 36% on August 4, 2026 to 29% on October 25, 2026 — a change of 7 points.
- Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 26 tracked days the odds ranged between 28% and 42%. The final reading of 29% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026” for 26 days, since August 4, 2026. As of October 25, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 29%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 36% to 29%, ranging between 28% and 42% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 25, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.