Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 34%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since August 4, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
34%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Republicans | 34% | 34% | — |
Full history table
| Date | the Republicans |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 34% |
| 2026-09-05 | 34% |
| 2026-09-04 | 35% |
| 2026-09-03 | 36% |
| 2026-09-02 | 36% |
| 2026-09-01 | 36% |
| 2026-08-31 | — |
| 2026-08-30 | — |
| 2026-08-29 | — |
| 2026-08-28 | — |
| 2026-08-27 | — |
| 2026-08-26 | — |
| 2026-08-25 | — |
| 2026-08-24 | — |
| 2026-08-23 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | — |
| 2026-08-21 | — |
| 2026-08-09 | 42% |
| 2026-08-08 | 42% |
| 2026-08-07 | 40% |
| 2026-08-06 | 40% |
| 2026-08-05 | — |
| 2026-08-04 | 36% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 34%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 36% on August 4, 2026 to 34% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 11 tracked days the odds ranged between 34% and 42%. The current reading of 34% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026” for 11 days, since August 4, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 34%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 36% to 34%, ranging between 34% and 42% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.