Final tracked odds
As of November 2, 2026, market-consensus odds make the Republicans the most likely outcome at 52%.
▼ 6 since the previous update. ▼ 7 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 2, 2026
52%
How the odds have moved
the Republicansthe Democrats
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Republicans | 57% | 52% | ▼ 6 |
| the Democrats | 42% | 50% | ▲ 8 |
Full history table
| Date | the Republicans | the Democrats |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | 52% | 50% |
| 2026-11-01 | 57% | 42% |
| 2026-09-30 | 58% | — |
| 2026-09-29 | 58% | — |
| 2026-09-28 | 57% | — |
| 2026-09-27 | 58% | 42% |
| 2026-09-26 | 58% | 42% |
| 2026-09-25 | 56% | 44% |
| 2026-09-24 | — | 46% |
| 2026-09-23 | — | 48% |
| 2026-09-22 | — | 48% |
| 2026-09-13 | 60% | 40% |
| 2026-09-12 | 61% | 39% |
| 2026-09-11 | 66% | — |
| 2026-09-10 | 66% | — |
| 2026-09-09 | 66% | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 66% | — |
| 2026-09-01 | 64% | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — | 40% |
| 2026-07-18 | — | 40% |
| 2026-07-17 | — | 40% |
| 2026-07-16 | 56% | 44% |
| 2026-07-15 | 56% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 56% | 44% |
| 2026-07-13 | 56% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 56% | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | 44% |
| 2026-07-10 | 57% | 42% |
| 2026-07-09 | — | 42% |
| 2026-07-08 | 58% | 42% |
| 2026-07-07 | 58% | 42% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Iowa Senate race in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 2, 2026, the Republicans led at 52%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Iowa Senate race in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 58% on July 7, 2026 to 52% on November 2, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Who will win the Iowa Senate race in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 52% and 66%. The final reading of 52% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Iowa Senate race in 2026” for 23 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 2, 2026, the Republicans leads the field at 52%. The final tracked chance for the Republicans has fallen from 58% to 52%, ranging between 52% and 66% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 2, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.