Final tracked odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds make Linke the most likely outcome at 60%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026
60%
How the odds have moved
LinkeGrüneSPD
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linke | 62% | 60% | ▼ 2 |
| Grüne | 3% | 3% | — |
| SPD | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Linke | Grüne | SPD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 60% | 3% | 2% |
| 2026-08-30 | 62% | 3% | 2% |
| 2026-08-29 | 60% | 3% | 2% |
| 2026-08-28 | 58% | 3% | 2% |
| 2026-08-27 | 56% | 3% | 2% |
| 2026-08-26 | 57% | 3% | — |
| 2026-08-25 | 57% | 4% | — |
| 2026-08-24 | 56% | 4% | — |
| 2026-08-23 | 58% | 4% | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 48% | 8% | — |
| 2026-08-21 | — | 9% | — |
| 2026-08-20 | — | 10% | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 38% | 8% | — |
| 2026-08-18 | — | 8% | — |
| 2026-08-17 | — | 8% | — |
| 2026-08-16 | — | 9% | — |
| 2026-08-15 | — | 8% | — |
| 2026-08-14 | — | 8% | — |
| 2026-08-13 | — | 9% | — |
| 2026-08-12 | — | 9% | — |
| 2026-08-11 | — | 9% | — |
| 2026-08-10 | — | 8% | — |
| 2026-08-09 | — | 9% | — |
| 2026-08-08 | — | 11% | — |
| 2026-08-07 | — | 11% | — |
| 2026-08-06 | 38% | — | — |
| 2026-08-05 | 38% | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | 38% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 38% | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | 38% | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | 38% | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | — | 14% | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — | 14% | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — | 14% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | — | 14% | — |
| 2026-07-27 | — | 14% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | 14% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — | 14% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | — | 14% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | — | 16% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | — | 16% | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — | 15% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | 15% | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — | 5% |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — | 6% |
| 2026-07-17 | — | — | 6% |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — | 5% |
| 2026-07-11 | 34% | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 30% | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 30% | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 28% | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 28% | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, Linke led at 60%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 22 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 28% on July 7, 2026 to 60% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 32 points.
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 22 tracked days the odds ranged between 28% and 62%. The final reading of 60% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections” for 22 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, Linke leads the field at 60%. The final tracked chance for Linke has risen from 28% to 60%, ranging between 28% and 62% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.