Final tracked odds
As of October 28, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Doctors Without Borders leads at 3%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
Everything Else · tracked since July 13, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 28, 2026
3%
How the odds have moved
Doctors Without BordersMelania Trump
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doctors Without Borders | — | 3% | — |
| Melania Trump | — | 1.2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Doctors Without Borders | Melania Trump |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 3% | 1.2% |
| 2026-10-08 | — | — |
| 2026-10-07 | — | — |
| 2026-10-06 | — | — |
| 2026-10-05 | — | — |
| 2026-09-29 | — | — |
| 2026-09-28 | — | — |
| 2026-09-22 | — | — |
| 2026-09-21 | — | — |
| 2026-09-20 | — | — |
| 2026-09-18 | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize” for 1 day, since July 13, 2026. As of October 28, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Doctors Without Borders leads at 3%. The final tracked chance for the leading outcome has held near 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.