The Morning Line

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET

8%

Today’s odds

As of September 6, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Yulia Navalnaya leads at 8%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Yulia Navalnayathe International Court of JusticeJulian AssangeRecep Tayyip ErdoğanKhaled Mashal
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 22Aug 6Aug 22Sep 6Yulia Navalnaya — Jul 20: 10%Yulia Navalnaya — Sep 6: 8%8%the International Court of Justice — Jul 7: 2%the International Court of Justice — Sep 6: 4%Julian Assange — Jul 7: 1.2%Julian Assange — Sep 6: 1.1%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Jul 7: 1.1%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Sep 6: 0.2%Khaled Mashal — Jul 7: 0.7%Khaled Mashal — Sep 6: 0.2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeSep 5TodayMove
Yulia Navalnaya8%8%—
the International Court of Justice4%4%—
Julian Assange1.1%1.1%—
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan0.2%0.2%—
Khaled Mashal0.2%0.2%—
Vladimir Putin0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DateYulia Navalnayathe International Court of JusticeJulian AssangeRecep Tayyip ErdoğanKhaled MashalVladimir Putin
2026-09-068%4%1.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-09-058%4%1.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-09-048%4%1.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-09-038%3%1.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-09-028%3%1.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-09-018%3%1.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-08-31—3%—0.2%—0.1%
2026-08-30—3%—0.2%—0.1%
2026-08-29—3%—0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-08-28—3%—0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-08-27—3%—0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-08-26—3%1.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-08-25—3%1.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-08-24—3%1.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-08-23—3%1.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-08-22—3%1.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-08-21—3%1.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-08-208%3%1.1%0.3%0.2%0.1%
2026-08-198%3%1.1%0.4%0.4%0.1%
2026-08-188%3%1.2%0.4%0.4%0.1%
2026-08-178%3%1.3%0.4%0.5%0.1%
2026-08-168%2%1.3%0.4%0.5%0.1%
2026-08-158%2%1.3%0.4%0.5%0.1%
2026-08-148%2%1.3%0.4%0.5%0.1%
2026-08-138%2%1.3%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-128%2%1.3%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-118%2%1.3%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-108%2%1.3%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-098%2%1.3%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-088%2%1.3%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-078%2%1.5%0.4%0.5%0.2%
2026-08-068%2%1.5%0.4%0.6%0.2%
2026-08-05—2%1.5%0.4%0.7%0.2%
2026-08-048%2%1.4%0.4%0.5%0.2%
2026-08-038%2%1.5%—0.6%0.2%
2026-08-0210%2%1.4%0.5%0.6%0.2%
2026-08-01—2%2%—0.5%0.2%
2026-07-3110%2%2%0.8%0.5%0.2%
2026-07-3010%2%—0.9%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2910%2%2%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2810%2%1.2%0.9%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2710%2%2%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2610%2%—0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2510%2%2%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2410%2%2%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2310%2%2%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2210%2%2%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2110%2%1.4%0.8%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-2010%2%2%0.9%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-19———0.9%——
2026-07-18———0.9%——
2026-07-17—2%—0.9%—0.2%
2026-07-16—2%—1.0%0.7%0.4%
2026-07-15—2%—1.1%—0.3%
2026-07-14—2%—1.1%——
2026-07-13—2%1.4%1.1%0.7%0.3%
2026-07-12—2%1.4%1.1%0.7%0.3%
2026-07-11—2%—1.1%—0.2%
2026-07-10—2%—1.1%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-09—2%—1.1%—0.2%
2026-07-08—2%1.2%1.1%0.7%0.2%
2026-07-07—2%1.2%1.1%0.7%0.4%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 — what are the odds?
As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
Down. Over the 36 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on July 20, 2026 to 8% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 2 points.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026” for 36 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Yulia Navalnaya leads at 8%. The chance for the leading outcome has fallen from 10% to 8%, ranging between 8% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.