Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds make Parti Québécois the most likely outcome at 98%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 14 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
98%
How the odds have moved
Parti QuébécoisQuébec solidaire
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Québécois | — | 98% | — |
| Québec solidaire | — | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Parti Québécois | Québec solidaire |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 98% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-04 | — | — |
| 2026-10-03 | — | — |
| 2026-10-02 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-30 | — | — |
| 2026-09-29 | — | — |
| 2026-09-28 | — | — |
| 2026-09-26 | — | — |
| 2026-09-25 | — | — |
| 2026-09-24 | — | — |
| 2026-09-20 | — | — |
| 2026-09-16 | 84% | — |
| 2026-09-15 | 83% | — |
| 2026-09-14 | 79% | — |
| 2026-09-13 | 74% | — |
| 2026-09-12 | — | — |
| 2026-09-11 | 76% | — |
| 2026-09-10 | 76% | — |
| 2026-09-09 | 74% | — |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — |
| 2026-09-07 | — | — |
| 2026-09-06 | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | — | — |
| 2026-07-26 | 70% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | 70% | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 72% | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 72% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 72% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 72% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 72% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 72% | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 72% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 68% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 68% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 74% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 74% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, Parti Québécois led at 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 21 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 74% on July 7, 2026 to 98% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 24 points.
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 21 tracked days the odds ranged between 68% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election” for 21 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, Parti Québécois leads the field at 98%. The final tracked chance for Parti Québécois has risen from 74% to 98%, ranging between 68% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.