Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds make Coalition Avenir Québec the most likely outcome at 26%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 10 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
26%
How the odds have moved
Coalition Avenir QuébecParti libéral du Québec
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coalition Avenir Québec | 26% | 26% | — |
| Parti libéral du Québec | — | 3% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Coalition Avenir Québec | Parti libéral du Québec |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 26% | 3% |
| 2026-09-05 | 26% | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 26% | 3% |
| 2026-09-03 | 25% | — |
| 2026-09-02 | 26% | 4% |
| 2026-09-01 | — | 4% |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | 16% | — |
| 2026-08-01 | 24% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, Coalition Avenir Québec leads at 26%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 24% on August 1, 2026 to 26% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 7 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 26%. The current reading of 26% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election” for 7 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, Coalition Avenir Québec leads the field at 26%. The chance for Coalition Avenir Québec has risen from 24% to 26%, ranging between 16% and 26% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.