Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
14%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 14% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 14% |
| 2026-11-02 | 14% |
| 2026-11-01 | 14% |
| 2026-10-31 | 14% |
| 2026-10-30 | 14% |
| 2026-10-29 | 17% |
| 2026-10-28 | 14% |
| 2026-10-27 | 14% |
| 2026-10-26 | 14% |
| 2026-10-24 | 14% |
| 2026-10-23 | 14% |
| 2026-10-22 | 14% |
| 2026-10-21 | 14% |
| 2026-10-20 | 14% |
| 2026-10-19 | 12% |
| 2026-10-18 | 12% |
| 2026-10-17 | 12% |
| 2026-10-16 | 12% |
| 2026-10-15 | 12% |
| 2026-10-14 | 14% |
| 2026-10-09 | 14% |
| 2026-09-19 | 8% |
| 2026-09-13 | 10% |
| 2026-09-12 | 10% |
| 2026-09-09 | 8% |
| 2026-09-08 | 8% |
| 2026-09-07 | 8% |
| 2026-09-06 | 8% |
| 2026-09-05 | 8% |
| 2026-09-04 | 6% |
| 2026-09-03 | 8% |
| 2026-09-02 | 8% |
| 2026-09-01 | 8% |
| 2026-07-17 | 23% |
| 2026-07-16 | 23% |
| 2026-07-14 | 28% |
| 2026-07-12 | 30% |
| 2026-07-10 | 28% |
| 2026-07-08 | 28% |
| 2026-07-07 | 36% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 40 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 36% on July 7, 2026 to 14% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 22 points.
- Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 40 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 36%. The current reading of 14% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026” for 40 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 36% to 14%, ranging between 6% and 36% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.