Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on July 11, 2026 to 0.6% on August 3, 2026 — a change of 21 points.

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.1% and 22%. The final reading of 0.6% sits inside that range.

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 11, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 3, 2026

0.6%

Final tracked odds

As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.6%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 21 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 2	Today	Move
Yes	0.1%	0.6%	▲ 1

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-03	0.6%
2026-08-02	0.1%
2026-08-01	0.1%
2026-07-11	22%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on July 11, 2026 to 0.6% on August 3, 2026 — a change of 21 points.
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.1% and 22%. The final reading of 0.6% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026” for 4 days, since July 11, 2026. As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 22% to 0.6%, ranging between 0.1% and 22% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.