Final tracked odds
As of October 17, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 24%.
▼ 5 since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
Everything Else · tracked since September 6, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 17, 2026
24%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 15 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | 24% | ▼ 5 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | 24% |
| 2026-10-15 | 28% |
| 2026-10-14 | 29% |
| 2026-10-13 | 26% |
| 2026-10-12 | 24% |
| 2026-09-30 | 20% |
| 2026-09-29 | 20% |
| 2026-09-28 | 20% |
| 2026-09-25 | 21% |
| 2026-09-07 | 26% |
| 2026-09-06 | 26% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 17, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 24%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 26% on September 6, 2026 to 24% on October 17, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 11 tracked days the odds ranged between 20% and 29%. The final reading of 24% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day” for 11 days, since September 6, 2026. As of October 17, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 24%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 26% to 24%, ranging between 20% and 29% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 17, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.