Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 17%.
▼ 12 since the previous update. ▼ 12 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Everything Else · tracked since September 2, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
17%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | 17% | ▼ 12 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 17% |
| 2026-10-08 | 28% |
| 2026-10-07 | 29% |
| 2026-10-06 | 29% |
| 2026-10-05 | 30% |
| 2026-09-22 | 24% |
| 2026-09-21 | 24% |
| 2026-09-05 | 21% |
| 2026-09-04 | 21% |
| 2026-09-03 | 21% |
| 2026-09-02 | 20% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 17%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on September 2, 2026 to 17% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 11 tracked days the odds ranged between 17% and 30%. The current reading of 17% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day” for 11 days, since September 2, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 17%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 20% to 17%, ranging between 17% and 30% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.