Final tracked odds
As of October 25, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
Everything Else · tracked since September 10, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 25, 2026
10%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 24 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 10% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 10% |
| 2026-10-24 | 10% |
| 2026-10-22 | 14% |
| 2026-10-19 | 16% |
| 2026-10-18 | 10% |
| 2026-10-17 | 10% |
| 2026-10-16 | 14% |
| 2026-10-15 | 12% |
| 2026-10-14 | 12% |
| 2026-09-28 | 24% |
| 2026-09-11 | 18% |
| 2026-09-10 | 16% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 25, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 16% on September 10, 2026 to 10% on October 25, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 12 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 24%. The final reading of 10% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day” for 12 days, since September 10, 2026. As of October 25, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 16% to 10%, ranging between 10% and 24% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 25, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.