Final tracked odds
As of October 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 57%.
▲ 18 since the previous update. ▲ 18 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will No one become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Politics · tracked since October 27, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 28, 2026
57%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 27 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| No one | 40% | 57% | ▲ 18 |
Full history table
| Date | No one |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 57% |
| 2026-10-27 | 40% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will No one become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 57%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will No one become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 40% on October 27, 2026 to 57% on October 28, 2026 — a change of 17 points.
- Will No one become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 40% and 57%. The final reading of 57% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will No one become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election” for 2 days, since October 27, 2026. As of October 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 57%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 40% to 57%, ranging between 40% and 57% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.