The Morning Line

Will Ralph Norman receive at least 59% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?

Politics · tracked since August 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 25, 2026

3%

Final tracked odds

As of August 25, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.

▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 10 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 2% on August 25, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Aug 20Aug 21Aug 22Aug 24Aug 25At least 59% — Aug 20: 12%At least 59% — Aug 21: 12%At least 59% — Aug 22: 6%At least 59% — Aug 23: 4%At least 59% — Aug 24: 6%At least 59% — Aug 25: 3%3%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeAug 24TodayMove
At least 59%6%3%▼ 2
Full history table
DateAt least 59%
2026-08-253%
2026-08-246%
2026-08-234%
2026-08-226%
2026-08-2112%
2026-08-2012%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Ralph Norman receive at least 59% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, August 25, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Ralph Norman receive at least 59% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff — did the odds go up or down?
Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on August 20, 2026 to 3% on August 25, 2026 — a change of 9 points.
Will Ralph Norman receive at least 59% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 3% and 12%. The final reading of 3% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Ralph Norman receive at least 59% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff” for 6 days, since August 20, 2026. As of August 25, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 3%, ranging between 3% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 25, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.