Final tracked odds
As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Politics · tracked since October 13, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 19, 2026
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 2% | 4% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Raphaël Glucksmann |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 4% |
| 2026-10-14 | 2% |
| 2026-10-13 | 2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 2% on October 13, 2026 to 4% on October 19, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election” for 3 days, since October 13, 2026. As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 2% to 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.