Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 6%?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 6%?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since August 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 24, 2026

38%

Final tracked odds

As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 38%.

▼ 19 since the previous update. ▼ 36 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 36% on August 24, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 21	Today	Move
Darline Graham, ≥6%	56%	38%	▼ 19

Full history table

Date	Darline Graham, ≥6%
2026-08-24	38%
2026-08-21	56%
2026-08-20	60%
2026-08-19 *	74%
2026-08-18 *	74%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 6% — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 24, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 38%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 6% — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 60% on August 20, 2026 to 38% on August 24, 2026 — a change of 22 points.
Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 6% — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 38% and 60%. The final reading of 38% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 6%” for 3 days, since August 20, 2026. As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 38%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 60% to 38%, ranging between 38% and 60% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.