Edition of September 6, 2026 · built from 5,978 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 11:43 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 19% this morning. · ▲ 15 points overnight · settles in 115 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 30 million views? Surging At least 30 million | Culture | 96% ▲ 74 7d: ▲ 74 |
| What will Jamie Raskin say during Meet the Press? Investigate / Investigated / Investigation | Everything Else | 96% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will Julia Stiles finish in the Top 3 on Dancing with the Stars Season 35? Julia Stiles | Everything Else | 84% ▲ 53 7d: ▲ 53 |
| Will it be confirmed that Stephen Miller speaks as part of official programming at the 2026 Republican Midterm Convention? Stephen Miller | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 41 7d: ▼ 41 |
| Will She’s The Best by Troye Sivan have above 3500000 streams during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week? Above 3.5M | Culture | 94% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 15000000 streams during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week? Above 15M | Culture | 94% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41 |
| Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Sep 19, 2026 Choosin' Texas | Culture | 96% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Patti Smith be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? Patti Smith | Everything Else | 52% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 51-52° in Seattle on Sep 6, 2026? 51° to 52° | News | 2% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Will Yash Patel be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Sep 11, 2026? Yash Patel | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 26 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-06? Yes | Everything Else | within the hour | 42% — |
| Spirit wins Spirit | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 90% — |
| Amsterdam Flames wins Amsterdam Flames | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 62% — |
| Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes? Yes | Everything Else | in 8 hours | 16% — |
| Notre Dame wins by over 20.5 points Notre Dame wins by over 20.5 points | College | in 11 hours | 54% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Ole Miss wins by over 6.5 points Ole Miss wins by over 6.5 points | College | in 11 hours | 52% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Sep 7, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | later today | 16% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will Beauty in Black be #2 US Netflix Show on Sep 7, 2026? Beauty in Black | Culture | tomorrow | 90% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $91.49 | Commodities | in 2 days | 64% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.1 and 39.3 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 to 39.3 | Politics | in 5 days | 12% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 90.00 and 90.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 11, 2026? $90.00 to $90.99 | Commodities | in 5 days | 10% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes | Tennis | in 6 days | 24% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 9 days | Economy | 50% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 9 days | Economy | 50% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Thriston Lawrence win the Omega European Masters? Thriston Lawrence · | Sports | 48% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 792 days | Politics | 40% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Runner Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 50 · settles in 8 days | Culture | 64% ▼ 27 7d: ▼ 31 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $91.49 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 64% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? At least 35% · settles in 59 days | Politics | 70% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 792 days | Politics | 25% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes · settles in 6 days | Tennis | 24% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $100.50 by Sep 30, 2026? 100.51 or above · settles in 25 days | Commodities | 23% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Sep 7, 2026? Ceasefire · settles today | Politics | 16% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Taylor Townsend wins Taylor Townsend · settles today | Tennis | 16% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Rockstar Games release GTA VI Online to the public before 2027? GTA VI Online · settles in 117 days | Culture | 16% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary of United States? Maria Bartiromo · settles in 868 days | Everything Else | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 117 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 792 days | Everything Else | 14% — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 297 days | NBA | 11% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Spirit wins Spirit · settles today | Everything Else | 90% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona wins by more than 1.5 goals? Barcelona wins by more than 1.5 goals · settles today | La Liga | 98.0% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 51 |
| Spirit wins map 2 Spirit · settles today | Everything Else | 94.0% — |
| Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? Yes · settles tomorrow | Politics | 96.3% — |
| G2 Esports wins map 1 G2 Esports · settles today | Everything Else | 93.0% — |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 30 million views? At least 30 million · settles tomorrow | Culture | 96.0% ▲ 74 7d: ▲ 74 |
| Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 10000000 streams during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week? Above 10M · settles in 7 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Payton Tolle: 4+ strikeouts? Payton Tolle: 4+ · settles today | MLB | 93.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $88.49 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 94.0% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $85.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 98.0% — |
| Will the minimum temperature be >65° in Philadelphia on Sep 6, 2026? 66° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 97.0% — |