Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
Sports · tracked since July 16, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
14%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 14% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 14% |
| 2026-11-03 | 14% |
| 2026-11-02 | 13% |
| 2026-10-31 | 16% |
| 2026-10-30 | 10% |
| 2026-10-29 | 10% |
| 2026-10-28 | 10% |
| 2026-10-27 | 10% |
| 2026-10-26 | 10% |
| 2026-10-25 | 10% |
| 2026-10-24 | 10% |
| 2026-10-23 | 10% |
| 2026-10-22 | 10% |
| 2026-10-21 | 11% |
| 2026-10-20 | 10% |
| 2026-10-19 | 10% |
| 2026-10-18 | 10% |
| 2026-10-17 | 10% |
| 2026-10-16 | 10% |
| 2026-10-15 | 10% |
| 2026-10-14 | 10% |
| 2026-10-13 | 10% |
| 2026-10-11 | 10% |
| 2026-10-10 | 10% |
| 2026-10-08 | 10% |
| 2026-10-05 | 10% |
| 2026-10-04 | 12% |
| 2026-10-03 | 12% |
| 2026-10-02 | 14% |
| 2026-10-01 | 14% |
| 2026-09-30 | 14% |
| 2026-09-29 | 14% |
| 2026-09-28 | 14% |
| 2026-08-09 | 34% |
| 2026-08-08 | 34% |
| 2026-08-07 | 34% |
| 2026-08-04 | 34% |
| 2026-08-03 | 34% |
| 2026-08-02 | 32% |
| 2026-08-01 | 28% |
| 2026-07-19 | 26% |
| 2026-07-18 | 27% |
| 2026-07-17 | 24% |
| 2026-07-16 | 24% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 44 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 24% on July 16, 2026 to 14% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 44 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 34%. The current reading of 14% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31” for 44 days, since July 16, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 24% to 14%, ranging between 10% and 34% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.