Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds make Mercedes the most likely outcome at 96%.
▲ 6 since the previous update. ▲ 7 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Sports · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
96%
How the odds have moved
MercedesRed Bull Racing
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 90% | 96% | ▲ 6 |
| Red Bull Racing | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Mercedes | Red Bull Racing |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 96% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-05 | 90% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-04 | 92% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-03 | 92% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-02 | 92% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | 91% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-31 | 90% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-30 | 90% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-29 | 90% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-28 | 90% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-27 | 90% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-26 | 86% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-25 | 86% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-24 | 86% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-23 | 84% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-22 | 84% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-21 | 84% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-20 | 84% | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-19 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-18 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-17 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-16 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-15 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-14 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-13 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-12 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-11 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-10 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-09 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-08 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-07 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-06 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-05 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-04 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-03 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-02 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-01 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-31 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-30 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-29 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-28 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-27 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-26 | 86% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | 84% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | 88% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 88% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 88% | — |
| 2026-07-21 | 84% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | 84% | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 86% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 86% | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 86% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 85% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, Mercedes leads at 96%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 60 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 85% on July 7, 2026 to 96% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 11 points.
- Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 60 tracked days the odds ranged between 84% and 96%. The current reading of 96% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion” for 60 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, Mercedes leads the field at 96%. The chance for Mercedes has risen from 85% to 96%, ranging between 84% and 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.