Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds make Abiy Ahmed the most likely outcome at 97%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
97%
How the odds have moved
Abiy AhmedGedion TimothewosBerhanu NegaBelete MollaAdanech Abiebie
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abiy Ahmed | 98% | 97% | ▼ 1 |
| Gedion Timothewos | 0.8% | 0.8% | — |
| Berhanu Nega | 0.7% | 0.7% | — |
| Belete Molla | 0.4% | 0.4% | — |
| Adanech Abiebie | 0.4% | 0.4% | — |
| Shimelis Abdisa | 0.2% | 0.2% | — |
| Demeke Mekonnen | 0.2% | 0.2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Abiy Ahmed | Gedion Timothewos | Berhanu Nega | Belete Molla | Adanech Abiebie | Shimelis Abdisa | Demeke Mekonnen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 97% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-05 | 98% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-04 | — | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-03 | — | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-02 | — | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-01 | — | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-31 | — | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-30 | — | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-29 | — | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-28 | 98% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-27 | 97% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-26 | 97% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-25 | 98% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-24 | 98% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-23 | 98% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-22 | 97% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-21 | 97% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-20 | 97% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-19 | 97% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-18 | 96% | 2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-17 | 96% | 2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-16 | 96% | 2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-15 | 96% | 2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-14 | 96% | 2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-13 | 96% | 2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-12 | 95% | 2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-11 | 96% | 2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-10 | 94% | 2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-09 | 94% | 2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-08 | 94% | 2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-07 | 96% | 2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-06 | 95% | 2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-05 | 96% | 2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-04 | 96% | 2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-03 | 96% | 2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-02 | 96% | 2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-01 | — | 2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 2026-07-31 | 96% | 2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 2026-07-30 | — | 2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-29 | — | 2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-28 | — | 2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-27 | — | 2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-26 | — | 2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-25 | — | 2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-24 | — | 2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-23 | — | 2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 2026-07-22 | — | 2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-21 | — | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-20 | — | 2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-19 | — | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-18 | — | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-17 | — | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — | 0.5% | 0.4% | — | 0.2% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | 0.6% | 0.4% | — | 0.2% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — | 0.5% | 0.4% | — | 0.2% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | 1.0% | 0.4% | — | 0.2% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | 0.9% | 0.5% | — | 0.2% | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | — | 0.2% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | — | 0.2% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | — | 0.2% | 0.2% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | — | 0.2% | 0.2% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, Abiy Ahmed leads at 97%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 30 tracked days the odds held near 96%, ending at 97% on September 6, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia” for 30 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, Abiy Ahmed leads the field at 97%. The chance for Abiy Ahmed has held near 96%, ranging between 94% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.