Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds make Benjamin Netanyahu the most likely outcome at 28%.
▼ 6 since the previous update. ▼ 19 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
28%
How the odds have moved
Benjamin NetanyahuGilad Erdan
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 34% | 28% | ▼ 6 |
| Gilad Erdan | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Benjamin Netanyahu | Gilad Erdan |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 28% | 0.1% |
| 2026-11-03 | 34% | 0.1% |
| 2026-11-02 | 34% | 0.1% |
| 2026-11-01 | 34% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-31 | 44% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-30 | 42% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-29 | 44% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-28 | 46% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-27 | 24% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-25 | — | — |
| 2026-10-24 | — | — |
| 2026-10-23 | — | — |
| 2026-10-22 | — | — |
| 2026-10-21 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-20 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-19 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-18 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-17 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-16 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-15 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-14 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-13 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-12 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-11 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-10 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-09 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-08 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-07 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-06 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-05 | — | — |
| 2026-10-04 | — | — |
| 2026-10-03 | — | — |
| 2026-10-02 | — | — |
| 2026-10-01 | — | — |
| 2026-09-30 | — | — |
| 2026-09-29 | — | — |
| 2026-09-28 | — | — |
| 2026-09-27 | — | — |
| 2026-09-26 | — | — |
| 2026-09-25 | — | — |
| 2026-09-24 | — | — |
| 2026-09-23 | — | — |
| 2026-09-22 | — | — |
| 2026-09-21 | — | — |
| 2026-09-19 | — | — |
| 2026-09-18 | — | — |
| 2026-09-17 | — | — |
| 2026-09-16 | — | — |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-25 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-24 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-23 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-22 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-21 | — | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-20 | — | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, Benjamin Netanyahu leads at 28%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 24% on October 27, 2026 to 28% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 24% and 46%. The current reading of 28% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel” for 9 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, Benjamin Netanyahu leads the field at 28%. The chance for Benjamin Netanyahu has risen from 24% to 28%, ranging between 24% and 46% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.