Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 52%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 18 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
52%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54% | 52% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 52% |
| 2026-11-03 | 54% |
| 2026-11-02 | 57% |
| 2026-10-31 | 57% |
| 2026-10-30 | 58% |
| 2026-10-29 | 66% |
| 2026-10-28 | 70% |
| 2026-10-27 | 63% |
| 2026-10-26 | 67% |
| 2026-10-25 | 56% |
| 2026-10-24 | 60% |
| 2026-10-23 | 56% |
| 2026-10-22 | 60% |
| 2026-10-21 | 64% |
| 2026-10-20 | 62% |
| 2026-10-19 | 62% |
| 2026-10-18 | 59% |
| 2026-10-17 | 44% |
| 2026-10-16 | 60% |
| 2026-10-15 | 70% |
| 2026-10-14 | 66% |
| 2026-10-13 | 76% |
| 2026-10-12 | 76% |
| 2026-10-11 | 82% |
| 2026-10-10 | 82% |
| 2026-10-09 | 82% |
| 2026-10-08 | 82% |
| 2026-10-07 | 80% |
| 2026-10-06 | 81% |
| 2026-10-05 | 88% |
| 2026-10-04 | 85% |
| 2026-10-03 | 84% |
| 2026-10-02 | 84% |
| 2026-10-01 | 84% |
| 2026-08-13 | 48% |
| 2026-08-12 | 38% |
| 2026-08-11 | 38% |
| 2026-08-08 | 40% |
| 2026-08-07 | 40% |
| 2026-08-06 | 40% |
| 2026-08-05 | 40% |
| 2026-08-04 | 38% |
| 2026-08-03 | 38% |
| 2026-08-02 | 38% |
| 2026-08-01 | 40% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 52%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 45 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 40% on August 1, 2026 to 52% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 45 tracked days the odds ranged between 38% and 88%. The current reading of 52% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027” for 45 days, since August 1, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 52%. The chance for a yes has risen from 40% to 52%, ranging between 38% and 88% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.