Final tracked odds
As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 19%.
▼ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 13 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
Everything Else · tracked since August 30, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 31, 2026
19%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 23% | 19% | ▼ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | 19% |
| 2026-10-30 | 23% |
| 2026-09-30 | 6% |
| 2026-09-29 | 4% |
| 2026-09-28 | 5% |
| 2026-09-25 | 6% |
| 2026-09-24 | 6% |
| 2026-09-23 | 6% |
| 2026-09-22 | 6% |
| 2026-09-21 | 6% |
| 2026-08-31 | 9% |
| 2026-08-30 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 19%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on August 30, 2026 to 19% on October 31, 2026 — a change of 11 points.
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 12 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 23%. The final reading of 19% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day” for 12 days, since August 30, 2026. As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 19%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 8% to 19%, ranging between 4% and 23% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.