Edition of October 11, 2026 · built from 4,485 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Before Nov 1, 2026 at 39% this morning. · ▲ 20 points overnight · settles in 89 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Chili Tropper be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Chili Tropper | Politics | 40% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Who will win the 2026 Simi Valley, California mayoral election? Robert Clarizio | Politics | 49% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes | Everything Else | 39% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <60° in Boston on Oct 11, 2026? 59° or below | News | 34% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >69° in Dallas on Oct 11, 2026? 70° or above | News | 38% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will Michael Malchieli be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Michael Malchieli | Politics | 42% ▲ 22 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 18 | Culture | 40% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Will UCLA qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-26 season? Surging UCLA | College | 48% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >57° on Oct 11, 2026? 58° or above | News | 46% ▲ 23 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <73° in Las Vegas on Oct 11, 2026? 72° or below | News | 80% ▲ 21 7d: ▲ 21 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Durasovic wins Viktor Durasovic | Tennis | in 2 hours | 43% — |
| Australia A wins Australia A | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 60% ▲ 15 7d: ▼ 2 |
| India A wins India A | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 39% ▼ 16 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11? Yes | Everything Else | in 6 hours | 42% — |
| CHI Bears wins by over 1.5 points? CHI Bears wins by over 1.5 points | NFL | in 11 hours | 48% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 20 | Culture | tomorrow | 15% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 50 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4189 USD/t.oz on October 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4189 | Commodities | tomorrow | 60% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 13, 2026? Above $91.99 | Commodities | in 2 days | 51% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will Erick Visconde win by KO or TKO? Yes | Everything Else | in 3 days | 12% — 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 37.3 and 37.5 according to RealClearPolitics? 37.3 to 37.5 | Politics | in 5 days | 20% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 13, 2026? Above $91.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 51% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 21 days | MLB | 42% — 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Australia A wins Australia A · settles today | Everything Else | 60% ▲ 15 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4189 USD/t.oz on October 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4189 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 60% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 3 |
| India A wins India A · settles today | Everything Else | 39% ▼ 16 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 · settles in 82 days | Politics | 32% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? La Bola Negra · settles in 86 days | Culture | 30% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 60 days | Economy | 74% — 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Francisco Cerundolo wins Francisco Cerundolo · | Tennis | 24% — |
| Sofia Meabe wins Sofia Meabe · | Tennis | 22% — |
| Will Bezalel Smotrich be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Bezalel Smotrich · settles in 381 days | Politics | 18% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 82 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 759 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 20 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 15% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 50 |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 263 days | Culture | 13% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 82 days | Economy | 13% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 263 days | NBA | 12% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 88% — 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 12% — 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes · settles in 172 days | Culture | 12% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Aneta Kucmova wins Aneta Kucmova · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Anna-Lena Friedsam wins Anna-Lena Friedsam · settles today | Tennis | 97.0% — |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 15 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.0% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| The Social Reckoning Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 52 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 94.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.3500? Above 4.3500 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 95.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Shaanxi Union FC wins by more than 1.5 goals? Shaanxi Union FC wins by more than 1.5 goals · settles today | Everything Else | 98.5% — |
| Will the minimum temperature be >59° in Philadelphia on Oct 11, 2026? 60° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 93.5% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 87.99 USD/Bbl on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $87.99 · settles in 6 days | Commodities | 97.0% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4129 USD/t.oz on October 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4129 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 94.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |